How Good Is Rafael Devers? A Deep Dive Into His Baseball Stats
Rafael Devers has emerged as one of Major League Baseball’s most powerful and consistent hitters. Since debuting with the Boston Red Sox, this Dominican slugger has built a reputation for brutal contact rates, thunderous home runs, and elite offensive metrics. In this blog post, we dive deep into Devers’ performance through the years — from batting averages and slugging percentage to Statcast data — to answer: just how good is Rafael Devers, really?
Table of Contents
1. 📈 Career Overview & Growth
MLB Debut & Early Years:
- Debuted 2017, age 20 — a rarity at the time, Devers quickly made an impression.
- By end of 2018, he’d already posted a .284 BA, 140 OPS+, and established himself as a cornerstone.
Breakout in 2019:
- Posted 32 HR, 115 RBI, .311/.372/.528 slash line, career-high .900 OPS.
- Finished 7th in AL MVP voting — first MVP-worthy season.
2020–2021 Consistency:
- 2020 (shortened): .263/.332/.472, 11 HR in 53 games — excellent per-game production.
- 2021: Career .279/.343/.502, 38 HR, 113 RBI — sustained elite output.
2022–2024 Peak:
- 2022: Hit .295/.351/.566, crushed 27 HR in 104 games, hampered by injuries.
- 2023: Seventh All-Star nod; explosive March–April; finished with 27 HR in 140 games.
- 2024: Likely season leader in batted-ball metrics — exact figures TBD as of June 2025, but fans expect 35+ HR.
Growth Summary:
Each year, Devers has improved power, bat-to-ball skills, and plate discipline — while playing in arguably the toughest division (AL East).
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2. Traditional Batting Stats
Batting Average (BA):
- Career .286 through 2024 — an elite clip. Strong contact, disciplined approach.
On‑Base Percentage (OBP):
- Career OBP ~.345 — average walk rate (~9%) with occasional hot streaks.
Slugging Percentage (SLG) & OPS:
- Career SLG ~.520; peak seasons (2019–2021) hovered .500+.
- OPS typically between .900–.960.
Home Runs & RBI:
- 2019–2024: averaging ~30 HR/year.
- RBIs per season: ~100.
- Elite run production — valuable middle-of-order asset.
These stats place him among the best offensive threats at third base — often ranked top‑5 compared to peers like Jose Ramirez, Matt Chapman, or Manny Machado.
3. Advanced Metrics & Rate Stats
OPS+ (Normalized for Park & Era):
- Career OPS+ around +135.
- Seasons over +150 during 2019, 2021, and 2024 embodiments of MVP-caliber production.
wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus):
- Career ~140 — means 40% better than league-average hitter.
- 2021 peaked ~150, substantiating his position among elite run producers.
WAR (Wins Above Replacement):
- Career ~25 WAR through 2024 (~5 WAR/year average).
- 2021: ~6.2 WAR — in the high-MVP candidate zone.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play):
- Career ~.300 — slightly above average.
- Indicates excellent contact and occasional lucky/quality hits.
These rate stats affirm Devers is a perennial offense leader.
4. Power, Launch Angle & Exit Velocity
Statcast Highlights (2021–2024):
- Average Exit Velocity: ~92–93 mph — elite-level impact.
- Hard-Hit Rate (95+ mph): ~40% — among highest in MLB.
- Barrel Rate: ~11–12% — top-third percentile.
- Launch Angle: Highly optimized (~16–20°) — ideal for power.
Average HR Distance:
- Approximately 415 feet — showcasing raw strength.
These metrics prove Devers isn’t just benefiting from good luck — he consistently barrels the ball hard and drives it deep.
5. Plate Discipline & Contact Quality
Walk and Strikeout Rates:
- Walk rate: ~8–10%, solid but not elite.
- Strikeout rate: ~18–20% — decent for power hitters.
O-Swing & Z-Swing Rates:
- O-Swing (outside zone swings): ~25% (league average ~30%) — shows disciplined eyes.
- Z-Swing (in-zone swings): high — he takes his strikes and drives strikes hard.
Contact Rate:
- Overall contact ~85%; on pitch in-zone: ~92% — excellent.
Devers is not just brute; his swing is smart, situational, and efficient.
6. Splits, Situational, & Clutch Performance
Home/Away Splits:
- Slightly higher BA and HR rate at Fenway — not unusual.
- Performs well on road — .280+ BA, good consistency.
Month-by-Month Trends:
- Does well early in season: March/April BA ~.300.
- Maintains consistency with dips in July (~.270 BA), surging again late in September.
High-Pressure Situations:
- Clutch stats: ~.270 BA with runners in scoring position; occasionally hits .300+.
- Late & close RBI count moderate; more context-dependent. Overall reliable.
7. Fielding & Base Running
Primarily 3B:
- Plays solid defense with 3–4 career OAA (outs above average).
- Limited Range runs, but hands and arm strength are consistent.
Base Running:
- Not a stolen base threat — career ~0.1 SB per season.
- Occasionally hustles; gets extra base hits but limited speed.
Offensively, he’s elite. Defensively and on base, he’s average to above-average.
8. Comparisons & Rankings
| Player | OPS+ | wRC+ | Avg HR/Season | WAR/Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Devers | 135 | 140 | 30 | ~5 |
| Jose Ramirez | 130 | 135 | 25 | ~4.5 |
| Manny Machado | 130 | 138 | 28 | ~4.8 |
| Matt Chapman | 118 | 120 | 22 | ~4.0 |
Devers stands tall among AL third basemen, ranking top tier for power and offense, with comparable defensive value.
9. Contract & Future Outlook
Contract:
- Signed 10-year, $331 million deal (Dec 2023) — expectations high.
Future Projection:
- Ages 27–31 (2025–2029) — expected prime years.
- Baserunners efficiency could drop, but power and bat contact likely hold steady.
- Career high 150+ OPS+ possible; 5+ WAR seasons foreseeable.
10. 🎯 Final Thoughts
Rafael Devers is one of MLB’s top offensive forces, arguably the best pure hitter at third base in his era. From batting average to slugging, from Statcast metrics to rate stats, he checks all boxes for productivity and consistency. Watching Devers swing is watching baseball artistry — he combines strength, precision, and discipline in a rare package.
With his prime approaching and contract secured, Devers seems destined for more All-Star rosters, MVP talk, and Boston loyalty. If you ask “How good is Rafael Devers?” — the answer is easy: among the MLB elite.
